Scouting Report
J.T. Miller holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Miller on neutral-zone draws (61% H2H, 36 meetings). Matthews wins 53.9% vs left-shot opponents — Miller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.9% vs Miller 54.9% (-1.1%)
H2H factor
Miller leads 49-45 in 94 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 50.5%
Defensive zone
Matthews 51.1%
Neutral zone
Matthews 50.5%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 50.6%
50.6%
49.4%
Matthews
Miller
Head-to-Head Record
45
-
49
(94 meetings)
45
49
Matthews
Miller
Last 10: Matthews 5-5 Miller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Miller
15
18
Matthews
Miller
33 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
16
9
Matthews
Miller
25 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Miller
14
22
Matthews
Miller
36 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Miller
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (9,298)
55.3% (6,690)
-1.3%
Power Play
55.5% (530)
58.0% (1,289)
-2.5%
Penalty Kill
49.8% (482)
48.4% (919)
+1.4%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Miller shoots left. Matthews is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (6,605).
Matthews shoots left. Miller is 54.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,938).
Home / Away
Matthews
Miller
Home
56.3% (5,065)
56.0% (4,622)
Away
51.5% (5,245)
53.8% (4,276)
By Period
Matthews
Miller
P1
55.5%
54.8%
P2
53.3%
55.7%
P3
52.8%
54.1%
OT
56.6%
62.3%
Final 5 min
54.1%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.9%
Miller
70.0%▲
64.0%
55.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 13:56 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 15:08 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 07:22 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 3 | 01:54 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 19:19 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 17:14 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 14:26 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 03:10 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 08:55 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 08:07 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 00:11 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 3 | 19:05 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 3 | 18:51 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 3 | 18:22 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 3 | 08:39 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 2 | 17:58 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 1 | 15:50 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |