Scouting Report
J.T. Miller holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Miller wins 61.4% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Miller 55.9% vs Pavelski 50.9% (+5.2%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 62.6%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 61.8%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 68.8%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 64.9%
35.1%
64.9%
Miller
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
7
(12 meetings)
5
7
Miller
Pavelski
Last 10: Miller 4-6 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Miller
2
1
Miller
Pavelski
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
3
Miller
Pavelski
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
3
Miller
Pavelski
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Miller
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
56.3% (1,033)
51.5% (594)
+4.8%
Power Play
62.5% (253)
51.7% (87)
+10.8%
Penalty Kill
47.4% (175)
28.6% (14)
+18.8%
On penalty kill, Miller has a +18.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Miller is 61.4% vs right-shot opponents (458).
Miller shoots left. Pavelski is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (527).
Home / Away
Miller
Pavelski
Home
58.6% (734)
53.1% (339)
Away
54.1% (727)
49.2% (356)
By Period
Miller
Pavelski
P1
57.1%
53.8%
P2
57.0%
47.8%
P3
54.7%
50.2%
OT
62.5%
71.4%
Final 5 min
56.1%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Miller
66.0%▬
66.5%
56.3%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2024 | 3 | 17:16 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 3 | 11:47 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 2 | 07:39 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 1 | 03:01 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 3 | 05:59 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 1 | 17:58 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 16:06 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 09:51 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 2 | 15:54 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 2 | 07:51 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 2 | 04:21 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 1 | 10:22 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |