Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Miller on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Miller wins 55.9% vs right-shot opponents — Kastelic shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Miller 54.9% vs Kastelic 56.5% (-1.8%)
H2H factor
Miller leads 11-2 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Miller 88.5%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 82.8%
Neutral zone
Miller 56.3%
Result
J.T. Miller favored at 70.6%
70.6%
29.4%
Miller
Kastelic
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
2
(13 meetings)
11
2
Miller
Kastelic
Last 10: Miller 9-1 Kastelic
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Miller
6
1
Miller
Kastelic
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Miller
1
0
Miller
Kastelic
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Miller
4
1
Miller
Kastelic
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Miller
Kastelic
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (6,690)
57.0% (1,635)
-1.7%
Power Play
58.0% (1,289)
80.0% (25)
-22.0%
Penalty Kill
48.4% (919)
53.8% (279)
-5.4%
On power play, Kastelic has a +22.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kastelic shoots right. Miller is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (2,958).
Miller shoots left. Kastelic is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,445).
Home / Away
Miller
Kastelic
Home
56.0% (4,622)
58.7% (904)
Away
53.8% (4,276)
55.2% (1,035)
By Period
Miller
Kastelic
P1
54.8%
58.6%
P2
55.7%
56.5%
P3
54.1%
55.6%
OT
62.3%
53.8%
Final 5 min
55.3%
59.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Miller
70.0%▲
64.0%
55.0%
Kastelic
56.0%▼
61.5%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 07:34 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 10:09 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 01:42 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 13:41 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 14:22 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 12:41 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 05:21 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Feb 5, 2025 | 2 | 13:43 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 09:53 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 3 | 14:26 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 2 | 13:50 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 2 | 04:14 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |