Scouting Report
J.T. Miller holds a +10.5% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Miller wins 60.6% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Miller 60.3% vs MacKinnon 51.0% (+10.5%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 9-9 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 64.1%
Defensive zone
Miller 58.3%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 55.9%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 55.5%
44.5%
55.5%
Miller
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
9
(18 meetings)
9
9
Miller
MacKinnon
Last 10: Miller 6-4 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
4
Miller
MacKinnon
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Miller
3
1
Miller
MacKinnon
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
4
4
Miller
MacKinnon
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Miller
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
62.0% (582)
49.7% (1,038)
+12.3%
Power Play
65.9% (126)
63.7% (157)
+2.2%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (71)
34.4% (32)
+16.3%
On penalty kill, Miller has a +16.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Miller is 60.6% vs right-shot opponents (292).
Miller shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (886).
Home / Away
Miller
MacKinnon
Home
63.0% (416)
53.1% (618)
Away
60.1% (363)
49.1% (609)
By Period
Miller
MacKinnon
P1
60.7%
49.3%
P2
63.9%
53.0%
P3
60.2%
50.7%
OT
60.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
64.4%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Miller
70.0%▲
64.0%
61.6%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 14:57 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 17:26 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 16:55 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 14:07 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 07:24 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 07:06 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 02:08 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 14:43 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 10:09 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 09:52 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 09:20 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 07:04 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 14:55 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 17:27 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 10:47 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 08:09 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |