Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Finley 50.3% vs Staal 55.3% (-4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 54.3%
Defensive zone
Finley 55.3%
Neutral zone
Staal 51.6%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 50.9%
49.1%
50.9%
Finley
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Finley
Staal
Last 8: Finley 4-4 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
1
2
Finley
Staal
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Finley
2
0
Finley
Staal
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
1
2
Finley
Staal
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Finley
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (284)
55.9% (14,654)
-5.5%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
62.7% (1,762)
-12.7%
Penalty Kill
51.5% (33)
47.9% (2,907)
+3.6%
On power play, Staal has a +12.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Finley is 49.4% vs left-shot opponents (247).
Finley shoots right. Staal is 58.8% vs right-shot opponents (6,583).
Home / Away
Finley
Staal
Home
53.8% (199)
56.4% (9,699)
Away
45.5% (132)
54.3% (9,689)
By Period
Finley
Staal
P1
52.8%
55.2%
P2
47.5%
55.9%
P3
51.6%
54.8%
OT
50.0%
56.2%
Final 5 min
48.3%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Finley
62.0%▲
51.5%
50.5%
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 19:01 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 18:54 | Defensive | Jack Finley |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 17:21 | Defensive | Jack Finley |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 17:15 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 06:56 | Offensive | Jack Finley |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 16:42 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jack Finley |