Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +12.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (65% H2H, 20 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Hughes 36.5% (+12.2%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 28-16 in 44 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 78.0%
Defensive zone
Nelson 98.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 95.2%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 90.8%
90.8%
9.2%
Nelson
Hughes
Head-to-Head Record
28
-
16
(44 meetings)
28
16
Nelson
Hughes
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Hughes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
7
6
Nelson
Hughes
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
8
3
Nelson
Hughes
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
13
7
Nelson
Hughes
20 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Hughes
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,744)
36.0% (2,926)
+11.9%
Power Play
54.7% (1,149)
38.8% (224)
+15.9%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (790)
31.0% (42)
+12.8%
On power play, Nelson has a +15.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hughes shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,584).
Nelson shoots left. Hughes is 34.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,948).
Home / Away
Nelson
Hughes
Home
50.1% (5,878)
36.8% (1,681)
Away
46.5% (5,806)
35.3% (1,511)
By Period
Nelson
Hughes
P1
48.7%
36.9%
P2
48.6%
33.4%
P3
47.7%
38.2%
OT
45.6%
37.5%
Final 5 min
48.0%
34.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Hughes
38.0%▬
37.0%
36.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 03:10 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 16:22 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 10:25 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 04:58 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 3 | 17:54 | Defensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 3 | 15:45 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 3 | 11:21 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 3 | 06:03 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 2 | 00:43 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 1 | 17:03 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 1 | 12:05 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 1 | 09:09 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 2 | 12:22 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 1 | 17:29 | Defensive | Jack Hughes |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 1 | 06:47 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 2 | 14:09 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 3 | 06:38 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 2 | 13:05 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 2 | 09:40 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 20, 2023 | 3 | 14:09 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |