Scouting Report
Dawson Mercer holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 39.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hughes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 39.9% vs Hughes 36.5% (+3.2%)
Offensive zone
Hughes 66.6%
Defensive zone
Mercer 50.2%
Neutral zone
Hughes 51.2%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 55.9%
44.1%
55.9%
Mercer
Hughes
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Hughes
Edge
Even Strength
39.1% (1,412)
36.0% (2,926)
+3.1%
Power Play
41.1% (90)
38.8% (224)
+2.3%
Penalty Kill
41.3% (46)
31.0% (42)
+10.3%
On penalty kill, Mercer has a +10.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hughes shoots left. Mercer is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,099).
Mercer shoots right. Hughes is 38.1% vs right-shot opponents (1,243).
Home / Away
Mercer
Hughes
Home
40.1% (756)
36.8% (1,681)
Away
38.5% (792)
35.3% (1,511)
By Period
Mercer
Hughes
P1
38.2%
36.9%
P2
39.2%
33.4%
P3
41.2%
38.2%
OT
0.0%
37.5%
Final 5 min
39.6%
34.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.3%
Hughes
38.0%▬
37.0%
36.1%