Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +17.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Stenlund on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Hughes wins 38.1% vs right-shot opponents — Stenlund shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 36.5% vs Stenlund 53.9% (-17.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hughes 95.3%
Defensive zone
Hughes 88.7%
Neutral zone
Hughes 86.7%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 87.8%
87.8%
12.2%
Hughes
Stenlund
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Hughes
Stenlund
Last 7: Hughes 1-6 Stenlund
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
0
4
Hughes
Stenlund
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stenlund
1
2
Hughes
Stenlund
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Stenlund
Edge
Even Strength
36.0% (2,926)
55.3% (2,738)
-19.3%
Power Play
38.8% (224)
52.6% (116)
-13.8%
Penalty Kill
31.0% (42)
50.4% (924)
-19.4%
On penalty kill, Stenlund has a +19.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stenlund shoots right. Hughes is 38.1% vs right-shot opponents (1,243).
Hughes shoots left. Stenlund is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,846).
Home / Away
Hughes
Stenlund
Home
36.8% (1,681)
54.3% (1,873)
Away
35.3% (1,511)
53.8% (1,905)
By Period
Hughes
Stenlund
P1
36.9%
56.2%
P2
33.4%
53.3%
P3
38.2%
53.0%
OT
37.5%
52.9%
Final 5 min
34.1%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▬
37.0%
36.1%
Stenlund
56.0%▼
59.0%
54.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2024 | 1 | 19:31 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 3 | 14:27 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 3 | 14:10 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 2 | 06:47 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 1 | 16:15 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 19, 2023 | 2 | 10:21 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 21, 2019 | 1 | 13:15 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |