Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +14.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Hughes on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Hughes wins 41.4% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 39.5% vs MacKinnon 51.0% (-14.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 86.2%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 80.5%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 70.4%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 80.0%
20.0%
80.0%
Hughes
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Hughes
MacKinnon
Last 6: Hughes 4-2 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
2
1
Hughes
MacKinnon
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Hughes
MacKinnon
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hughes
2
0
Hughes
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
36.7% (305)
49.7% (1,038)
-13.0%
Power Play
14.3% (7)
63.7% (157)
-49.4%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
34.4% (32)
-1.1%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +49.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Hughes is 41.4% vs right-shot opponents (111).
Hughes shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (886).
Home / Away
Hughes
MacKinnon
Home
35.8% (159)
53.1% (618)
Away
36.5% (159)
49.1% (609)
By Period
Hughes
MacKinnon
P1
42.3%
49.3%
P2
28.2%
53.0%
P3
37.2%
50.7%
Final 5 min
27.5%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▬
37.0%
36.2%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 13:06 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 12:54 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 02:58 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 04:05 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 03:49 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 2 | 10:31 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |