Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +13.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Zacha on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Hughes wins 34.8% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 36.5% vs Zacha 49.2% (-13.1%)
H2H factor
Zacha leads 9-6 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Hughes 77.9%
Defensive zone
Zacha 56.1%
Neutral zone
Hughes 67.3%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 59.2%
59.2%
40.8%
Hughes
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
9
(15 meetings)
6
9
Hughes
Zacha
Last 10: Hughes 5-5 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Hughes
Zacha
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
2
5
Hughes
Zacha
7 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Hughes
Zacha
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
36.0% (2,926)
48.9% (5,156)
-12.9%
Power Play
38.8% (224)
55.7% (813)
-16.9%
Penalty Kill
31.0% (42)
42.2% (557)
-11.2%
On power play, Zacha has a +16.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Hughes is 34.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,948).
Hughes shoots left. Zacha is 47.9% vs left-shot opponents (3,965).
Home / Away
Hughes
Zacha
Home
36.8% (1,681)
49.7% (3,381)
Away
35.3% (1,511)
48.6% (3,145)
By Period
Hughes
Zacha
P1
36.9%
49.9%
P2
33.4%
49.2%
P3
38.2%
48.2%
OT
37.5%
53.5%
Final 5 min
34.1%
47.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▬
37.0%
36.1%
Zacha
56.0%▲
50.0%
49.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 16:31 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 16:16 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 13:56 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 03:05 | Defensive | Jack Hughes |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 3 | 07:56 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 2 | 17:14 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 2 | 13:03 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 2 | 00:37 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 03:36 | Defensive | Jack Hughes |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 2 | 18:40 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 1 | 04:06 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 28, 2022 | 2 | 16:42 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |