Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +19.2% FO% edge overall. Hughes wins 33.0% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 39.5% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (-19.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hughes 74.1%
Defensive zone
Hughes 55.7%
Neutral zone
Hughes 73.5%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 74.1%
74.1%
25.9%
Hughes
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Hughes
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Hughes
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
36.7% (305)
55.7% (856)
-19.0%
Power Play
14.3% (7)
57.5% (233)
-43.2%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
50.0% (144)
-16.7%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +43.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Hughes is 33.0% vs left-shot opponents (206).
Hughes shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Hughes
O'Reilly
Home
35.8% (159)
55.5% (616)
Away
36.5% (159)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Hughes
O'Reilly
P1
42.3%
58.1%
P2
28.2%
54.9%
P3
37.2%
53.9%
Final 5 min
27.5%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▬
37.0%
36.2%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2026 | 3 | 05:42 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 2 | 17:52 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |