Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +14.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Hughes wins 33.0% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 39.5% vs Aho 50.5% (-14.3%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 11-1 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Hughes 91.7%
Defensive zone
Hughes 79.5%
Neutral zone
Hughes 85.0%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 86.9%
86.9%
13.1%
Hughes
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
11
(12 meetings)
1
11
Hughes
Aho
Last 10: Hughes 1-9 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
4
Hughes
Aho
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
2
Hughes
Aho
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
0
5
Hughes
Aho
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
36.7% (305)
50.5% (878)
-13.8%
Power Play
14.3% (7)
53.5% (144)
-39.2%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
44.3% (61)
-11.0%
On power play, Aho has a +39.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Hughes is 33.0% vs left-shot opponents (206).
Hughes shoots left. Aho is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Hughes
Aho
Home
35.8% (159)
53.8% (571)
Away
36.5% (159)
46.9% (512)
By Period
Hughes
Aho
P1
42.3%
49.0%
P2
28.2%
51.7%
P3
37.2%
50.3%
Final 5 min
27.5%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▬
37.0%
36.2%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | 3 | 08:02 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 2 | 19:11 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 2 | 15:13 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 2 | 06:29 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 2 | 01:07 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 1 | 17:06 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 16:22 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 11:13 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 02:30 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 01:07 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 13:05 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 03:54 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |