Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +15.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on neutral-zone draws (82% H2H, 28 meetings). Hughes wins 34.8% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 36.5% vs Aho 51.3% (-15.2%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 40-11 in 51 meetings
Offensive zone
Hughes 93.6%
Defensive zone
Hughes 96.4%
Neutral zone
Hughes 97.4%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 96.2%
96.2%
3.8%
Hughes
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
40
(51 meetings)
11
40
Hughes
Aho
Last 10: Hughes 1-9 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
4
9
Hughes
Aho
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
2
8
Hughes
Aho
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
5
23
Hughes
Aho
28 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
36.0% (2,926)
50.2% (6,646)
-14.2%
Power Play
38.8% (224)
58.9% (1,310)
-20.1%
Penalty Kill
31.0% (42)
46.5% (465)
-15.5%
On power play, Aho has a +20.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Hughes is 34.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,948).
Hughes shoots left. Aho is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (5,317).
Home / Away
Hughes
Aho
Home
36.8% (1,681)
52.4% (4,325)
Away
35.3% (1,511)
50.1% (4,096)
By Period
Hughes
Aho
P1
36.9%
51.1%
P2
33.4%
52.1%
P3
38.2%
50.8%
OT
37.5%
48.9%
Final 5 min
34.1%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▬
37.0%
36.1%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | 3 | 08:02 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 2 | 19:11 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 2 | 15:13 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 2 | 06:29 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 2 | 01:07 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 1 | 17:06 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 16:22 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 11:13 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 02:30 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 01:07 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 13:05 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 03:54 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 3 | 11:34 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 3 | 06:28 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 3 | 01:05 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 2 | 18:18 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 2 | 11:04 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 2 | 06:36 | Defensive | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 2 | 06:30 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 2 | 04:28 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |