Scouting Report
Tage Thompson holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Hughes wins 41.4% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 39.5% vs Thompson 45.2% (-8.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thompson 67.2%
Defensive zone
Thompson 82.2%
Neutral zone
Thompson 66.0%
Result
Tage Thompson favored at 66.6%
33.4%
66.6%
Hughes
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Hughes
Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
1
0
Hughes
Thompson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hughes
1
0
Hughes
Thompson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
36.7% (305)
44.6% (661)
-7.9%
Power Play
14.3% (7)
48.4% (95)
-34.1%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
33.3% (33)
+0.0%
On power play, Thompson has a +34.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Hughes is 41.4% vs right-shot opponents (111).
Hughes shoots left. Thompson is 41.8% vs left-shot opponents (567).
Home / Away
Hughes
Thompson
Home
35.8% (159)
45.7% (411)
Away
36.5% (159)
43.4% (378)
By Period
Hughes
Thompson
P1
42.3%
47.7%
P2
28.2%
45.7%
P3
37.2%
40.5%
Final 5 min
27.5%
42.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▬
37.0%
36.2%
Thompson
36.0%▼
40.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2026 | 2 | 04:43 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1 | 03:51 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |