Scouting Report
Jack McBain holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for McBain on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). McBain wins 53.5% vs left-shot opponents — Celebrini shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 50.9% vs Celebrini 48.7% (+2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McBain 51.6%
Defensive zone
McBain 73.0%
Neutral zone
McBain 63.5%
Result
Jack McBain favored at 56.4%
56.4%
43.6%
McBain
Celebrini
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
McBain
Celebrini
Last 7: McBain 6-1 Celebrini
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McBain
5
0
McBain
Celebrini
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McBain
1
0
McBain
Celebrini
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Celebrini
0
1
McBain
Celebrini
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Celebrini
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (569)
47.8% (993)
+4.7%
Power Play
42.1% (19)
54.1% (111)
-12.0%
Penalty Kill
36.2% (47)
56.0% (25)
-19.8%
On penalty kill, Celebrini has a +19.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Celebrini shoots left. McBain is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (374).
McBain shoots left. Celebrini is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (775).
Home / Away
McBain
Celebrini
Home
52.4% (309)
48.5% (538)
Away
49.7% (326)
48.7% (591)
By Period
McBain
Celebrini
P1
54.0%
48.1%
P2
52.7%
46.8%
P3
46.5%
51.0%
OT
50.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
54.8%
46.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.0%
Celebrini
48.0%▲
44.5%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1, 2025 | 2 | 03:39 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 2 | 03:35 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 1 | 18:39 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 2 | 10:12 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 2 | 06:00 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 2 | 05:51 | Neutral | Macklin Celebrini |
| Oct 17, 2025 | 3 | 03:58 | Offensive | Jack McBain |