Scouting Report
Jack McBain holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for McBain on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 50.9% vs Kapanen 47.1% (+4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McBain 57.5%
Defensive zone
McBain 79.6%
Neutral zone
McBain 71.1%
Result
Jack McBain favored at 66.3%
66.3%
33.7%
McBain
Kapanen
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
McBain
Kapanen
Last 5: McBain 4-1 Kapanen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McBain
2
1
McBain
Kapanen
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McBain
2
0
McBain
Kapanen
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Kapanen
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (569)
46.5% (527)
+6.0%
Power Play
42.1% (19)
54.8% (42)
-12.7%
Penalty Kill
36.2% (47)
39.5% (38)
-3.3%
On power play, Kapanen has a +12.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kapanen shoots right. McBain is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (261).
McBain shoots left. Kapanen is 45.9% vs left-shot opponents (449).
Home / Away
McBain
Kapanen
Home
52.4% (309)
47.0% (315)
Away
49.7% (326)
46.2% (292)
By Period
McBain
Kapanen
P1
54.0%
41.6%
P2
52.7%
50.7%
P3
46.5%
47.6%
OT
50.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
54.8%
44.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.0%
Kapanen
32.0%▼
47.0%
46.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 12:21 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 05:53 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 08:27 | Offensive | Oliver Kapanen |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 15:58 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 07:17 | Defensive | Jack McBain |