Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (46.6% vs 46.3%). Look for McBain on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). McBain wins 44.8% vs right-shot opponents — Kapanen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 46.7% vs Kapanen 46.8% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kapanen 58.7%
Defensive zone
McBain 68.7%
Neutral zone
McBain 52.9%
Result
Jack McBain favored at 52.3%
52.3%
47.7%
McBain
Kapanen
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
McBain
Kapanen
Last 5: McBain 4-1 Kapanen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McBain
2
1
McBain
Kapanen
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McBain
2
0
McBain
Kapanen
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Kapanen
Edge
Even Strength
48.1% (2,322)
46.3% (572)
+1.8%
Power Play
44.6% (56)
50.9% (53)
-6.3%
Penalty Kill
35.6% (309)
39.5% (38)
-3.9%
On power play, Kapanen has a +6.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kapanen shoots right. McBain is 44.8% vs right-shot opponents (995).
McBain shoots left. Kapanen is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (493).
Home / Away
McBain
Kapanen
Home
49.1% (1,379)
46.3% (348)
Away
44.0% (1,308)
46.3% (315)
By Period
McBain
Kapanen
P1
47.1%
41.7%
P2
47.4%
49.6%
P3
45.4%
47.5%
OT
37.5%
25.0%
Final 5 min
49.0%
44.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.6%
Kapanen
32.0%▼
47.0%
46.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 12:21 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 05:53 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 08:27 | Offensive | Oliver Kapanen |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 15:58 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 07:17 | Defensive | Jack McBain |