Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). McBain wins 53.5% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 50.9% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (-4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 50.3%
Defensive zone
McBain 61.5%
Neutral zone
McBain 58.5%
Result
Jack McBain favored at 53.2%
53.2%
46.8%
McBain
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
McBain
O'Reilly
Last 5: McBain 2-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
McBain
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
McBain
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (569)
55.7% (856)
-3.2%
Power Play
42.1% (19)
57.5% (233)
-15.4%
Penalty Kill
36.2% (47)
50.0% (144)
-13.8%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +15.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. McBain is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (374).
McBain shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
McBain
O'Reilly
Home
52.4% (309)
55.5% (616)
Away
49.7% (326)
55.3% (617)
By Period
McBain
O'Reilly
P1
54.0%
58.1%
P2
52.7%
54.9%
P3
46.5%
53.9%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.8%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 16:36 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 12:50 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 18:47 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 11:37 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 08:48 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |