Jake Evans vs Jean-Gabriel Pageau
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Evans wins 59.2% vs right-shot opponents — Pageau shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.0% vs Pageau 59.0% (-4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pageau 54.6%
Defensive zone
Evans 74.4%
Neutral zone
Evans 58.8%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 68.2%
68.2%
31.8%
Evans
Pageau
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Evans
Pageau
Last 5: Evans 2-3 Pageau
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
1
2
Evans
Pageau
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Evans
Pageau
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Pageau
Edge
Even Strength
55.6% (522)
59.4% (726)
-3.8%
Power Play
72.7% (11)
69.0% (42)
+3.7%
Penalty Kill
55.2% (210)
59.7% (221)
-4.5%
On penalty kill, Pageau has a +4.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pageau shoots right. Evans is 59.2% vs right-shot opponents (184).
Evans shoots right. Pageau is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (264).
Home / Away
Evans
Pageau
Home
54.7% (402)
58.4% (430)
Away
56.9% (341)
61.0% (559)
By Period
Evans
Pageau
P1
57.9%
55.4%
P2
55.2%
61.8%
P3
53.6%
61.5%
OT
66.7%
75.0%
Final 5 min
54.5%
63.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
55.7%
Pageau
60.0%▬
60.0%
59.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 1 | 04:10 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 1 | 02:01 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 14:57 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 01:42 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 12:11 | Neutral | Jake Evans |