Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Evans wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Drouin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.0% vs Drouin 49.5% (+6.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Drouin 84.1%
Defensive zone
Evans 84.8%
Neutral zone
Drouin 51.8%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 62.9%
62.9%
37.1%
Evans
Drouin
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Evans
Drouin
Last 5: Evans 2-3 Drouin
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Drouin
0
2
Evans
Drouin
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
2
1
Evans
Drouin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Drouin
Edge
Even Strength
55.6% (522)
47.5% (181)
+8.1%
Power Play
72.7% (11)
56.8% (44)
+15.9%
On power play, Evans has a +15.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Drouin shoots left. Evans is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (559).
Evans shoots right. Drouin is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (89).
Home / Away
Evans
Drouin
Home
54.7% (402)
49.5% (97)
Away
56.9% (341)
49.2% (128)
By Period
Evans
Drouin
P1
57.9%
52.1%
P2
55.2%
51.5%
P3
53.6%
45.0%
OT
66.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.5%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
55.7%
Drouin
44.0%▼
49.5%
49.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 18:19 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 01:36 | Defensive | Jonathan Drouin |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 12:32 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 08:02 | Defensive | Jonathan Drouin |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 05:01 | Neutral | Jonathan Drouin |