Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Evans wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Toews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.0% vs Toews 60.4% (-5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 83.0%
Defensive zone
Evans 83.8%
Neutral zone
Toews 53.3%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 50.4%
50.4%
49.6%
Evans
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Evans
Toews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
0
2
Evans
Toews
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
2
0
Evans
Toews
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
55.6% (522)
62.6% (728)
-7.0%
Power Play
72.7% (11)
59.4% (143)
+13.3%
Penalty Kill
55.2% (210)
46.9% (32)
+8.3%
On power play, Evans has a +13.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. Evans is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (559).
Evans shoots right. Toews is 71.3% vs right-shot opponents (303).
Home / Away
Evans
Toews
Home
54.7% (402)
61.1% (455)
Away
56.9% (341)
62.1% (448)
By Period
Evans
Toews
P1
57.9%
59.7%
P2
55.2%
66.7%
P3
53.6%
58.4%
OT
66.7%
80.0%
Final 5 min
54.5%
58.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
55.7%
Toews
62.0%▼
63.5%
61.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 18:12 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 15:53 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 3 | 10:42 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 3 | 03:46 | Defensive | Jake Evans |