Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.2% vs Sourdif 45.6% (+7.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Evans 71.6%
Defensive zone
Evans 91.0%
Neutral zone
Evans 90.3%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 84.3%
84.3%
15.7%
Evans
Sourdif
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Evans
Sourdif
Last 6: Evans 5-1 Sourdif
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Evans
Sourdif
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
2
0
Evans
Sourdif
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
2
0
Evans
Sourdif
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Sourdif
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (3,740)
44.3% (585)
+9.4%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
50.0% (24)
+10.6%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (1,228)
61.5% (13)
-14.4%
On penalty kill, Sourdif has a +14.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sourdif shoots right. Evans is 52.5% vs right-shot opponents (1,301).
Evans shoots right. Sourdif is 42.0% vs right-shot opponents (181).
Home / Away
Evans
Sourdif
Home
53.3% (2,621)
43.6% (321)
Away
51.0% (2,418)
46.2% (301)
By Period
Evans
Sourdif
P1
54.0%
41.9%
P2
50.9%
44.3%
P3
52.0%
47.9%
OT
46.5%
100.0%
Final 5 min
50.5%
42.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
52.2%
Sourdif
36.0%▼
41.0%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 16:39 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 13:16 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 10:46 | Offensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 13:29 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 08:21 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 01:00 | Neutral | Jake Evans |