Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Evans wins 59.2% vs right-shot opponents — Stenlund shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.0% vs Stenlund 54.2% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stenlund 54.3%
Defensive zone
Evans 55.0%
Neutral zone
Evans 54.4%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 51.2%
48.8%
51.2%
Evans
Stenlund
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Evans
Stenlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Evans
Stenlund
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
0
Evans
Stenlund
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Stenlund
Edge
Even Strength
55.6% (522)
56.2% (650)
-0.6%
Power Play
72.7% (11)
53.2% (47)
+19.5%
Penalty Kill
55.2% (210)
51.6% (312)
+3.6%
On power play, Evans has a +19.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stenlund shoots right. Evans is 59.2% vs right-shot opponents (184).
Evans shoots right. Stenlund is 48.3% vs right-shot opponents (321).
Home / Away
Evans
Stenlund
Home
54.7% (402)
56.9% (483)
Away
56.9% (341)
52.5% (526)
By Period
Evans
Stenlund
P1
57.9%
54.2%
P2
55.2%
53.2%
P3
53.6%
56.9%
OT
66.7%
42.1%
Final 5 min
54.5%
57.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
55.7%
Stenlund
56.0%▼
59.0%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 10:34 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 07:59 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 00:36 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |