Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Evans wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Celebrini shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.0% vs Celebrini 48.7% (+7.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Evans 53.1%
Defensive zone
Evans 96.7%
Neutral zone
Evans 82.4%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 84.1%
84.1%
15.9%
Evans
Celebrini
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
1
(8 meetings)
7
1
Evans
Celebrini
Last 8: Evans 7-1 Celebrini
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Celebrini
0
1
Evans
Celebrini
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
3
0
Evans
Celebrini
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
4
0
Evans
Celebrini
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Celebrini
Edge
Even Strength
55.6% (522)
47.8% (993)
+7.8%
Power Play
72.7% (11)
54.1% (111)
+18.6%
Penalty Kill
55.2% (210)
56.0% (25)
-0.8%
On power play, Evans has a +18.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Celebrini shoots left. Evans is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (559).
Evans shoots right. Celebrini is 48.0% vs right-shot opponents (354).
Home / Away
Evans
Celebrini
Home
54.7% (402)
48.5% (538)
Away
56.9% (341)
48.7% (591)
By Period
Evans
Celebrini
P1
57.9%
48.1%
P2
55.2%
46.8%
P3
53.6%
51.0%
OT
66.7%
57.1%
Final 5 min
54.5%
46.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
55.7%
Celebrini
48.0%▲
44.5%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 15:22 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 08:27 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 03:20 | Offensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 10:56 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 05:02 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 02:43 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 12:33 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 09:27 | Defensive | Jake Evans |