Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Evans wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — McTavish shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.0% vs McTavish 49.1% (+6.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McTavish 84.9%
Defensive zone
Evans 84.6%
Neutral zone
McTavish 52.1%
Result
Mason McTavish favored at 52.1%
47.9%
52.1%
Evans
McTavish
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Evans
McTavish
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: McTavish
0
1
Evans
McTavish
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
McTavish
Edge
Even Strength
55.6% (522)
47.6% (618)
+8.0%
Power Play
72.7% (11)
58.3% (103)
+14.4%
Penalty Kill
55.2% (210)
33.3% (6)
+21.9%
On penalty kill, Evans has a +21.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McTavish shoots left. Evans is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (559).
Evans shoots right. McTavish is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (256).
Home / Away
Evans
McTavish
Home
54.7% (402)
52.2% (391)
Away
56.9% (341)
45.2% (336)
By Period
Evans
McTavish
P1
57.9%
50.2%
P2
55.2%
47.7%
P3
53.6%
49.2%
OT
66.7%
40.0%
Final 5 min
54.5%
45.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
55.7%
McTavish
48.0%▲
45.5%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 17:25 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |