Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Evans wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Rasmussen shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.0% vs Rasmussen 47.8% (+8.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Evans 56.2%
Defensive zone
Evans 90.9%
Neutral zone
Evans 82.2%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 84.4%
84.4%
15.6%
Evans
Rasmussen
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Evans
Rasmussen
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
0
Evans
Rasmussen
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
2
1
Evans
Rasmussen
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Rasmussen
Edge
Even Strength
55.6% (522)
46.8% (248)
+8.8%
Power Play
72.7% (11)
62.5% (8)
+10.2%
Penalty Kill
55.2% (210)
43.8% (16)
+11.4%
On penalty kill, Evans has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rasmussen shoots left. Evans is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (559).
Evans shoots right. Rasmussen is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (104).
Home / Away
Evans
Rasmussen
Home
54.7% (402)
50.0% (98)
Away
56.9% (341)
45.4% (174)
By Period
Evans
Rasmussen
P1
57.9%
40.2%
P2
55.2%
55.8%
P3
53.6%
43.0%
Final 5 min
54.5%
47.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
55.7%
Rasmussen
32.0%▼
43.0%
47.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 10:35 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 12:29 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 19:20 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 02:23 | Neutral | Michael Rasmussen |