Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Evans wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.0% vs Backlund 49.8% (+5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backlund 52.0%
Defensive zone
Evans 55.1%
Neutral zone
Evans 50.1%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 52.6%
52.6%
47.4%
Evans
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Evans
Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
0
Evans
Backlund
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
1
Evans
Backlund
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
55.6% (522)
50.5% (944)
+5.1%
Power Play
72.7% (11)
51.5% (66)
+21.2%
Penalty Kill
55.2% (210)
47.1% (297)
+8.1%
On power play, Evans has a +21.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Evans is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (559).
Evans shoots right. Backlund is 49.6% vs right-shot opponents (369).
Home / Away
Evans
Backlund
Home
54.7% (402)
48.1% (636)
Away
56.9% (341)
51.4% (671)
By Period
Evans
Backlund
P1
57.9%
45.4%
P2
55.2%
54.1%
P3
53.6%
49.2%
OT
66.7%
55.6%
Final 5 min
54.5%
48.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
55.7%
Backlund
50.0%▬
50.0%
49.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2025 | 2 | 19:55 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 2 | 12:52 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |