Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Evans wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.0% vs Frost 56.4% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 92.4%
Defensive zone
Evans 82.6%
Neutral zone
Frost 54.5%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 67.7%
67.7%
32.3%
Evans
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Evans
Frost
Last 5: Evans 3-2 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
3
0
Evans
Frost
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
0
2
Evans
Frost
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
55.6% (522)
56.0% (755)
-0.4%
Power Play
72.7% (11)
60.1% (173)
+12.6%
Penalty Kill
55.2% (210)
88.9% (9)
-33.7%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +33.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Evans is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (559).
Evans shoots right. Frost is 54.8% vs right-shot opponents (290).
Home / Away
Evans
Frost
Home
54.7% (402)
57.3% (497)
Away
56.9% (341)
56.8% (440)
By Period
Evans
Frost
P1
57.9%
60.2%
P2
55.2%
56.0%
P3
53.6%
54.8%
OT
66.7%
63.6%
Final 5 min
54.5%
52.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
55.7%
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
57.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2025 | 3 | 11:42 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 3 | 11:36 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 2 | 09:50 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 2 | 09:43 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 1 | 08:35 | Defensive | Jake Evans |