Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Evans wins 59.2% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.0% vs MacKinnon 51.0% (+4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 70.2%
Defensive zone
Evans 93.5%
Neutral zone
Evans 69.8%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 55.7%
55.7%
44.3%
Evans
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Evans
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Evans
MacKinnon
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
0
Evans
MacKinnon
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
1
0
Evans
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
55.6% (522)
49.7% (1,038)
+5.9%
Power Play
72.7% (11)
63.7% (157)
+9.0%
Penalty Kill
55.2% (210)
34.4% (32)
+20.8%
On penalty kill, Evans has a +20.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Evans is 59.2% vs right-shot opponents (184).
Evans shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (341).
Home / Away
Evans
MacKinnon
Home
54.7% (402)
53.1% (618)
Away
56.9% (341)
49.1% (609)
By Period
Evans
MacKinnon
P1
57.9%
49.3%
P2
55.2%
53.0%
P3
53.6%
50.7%
OT
66.7%
66.7%
Final 5 min
54.5%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
55.7%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 17:39 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 05:35 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 13:25 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 05:47 | Defensive | Jake Evans |