Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. Evans wins 59.2% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.0% vs Dowd 48.8% (+7.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Evans 72.5%
Defensive zone
Evans 60.0%
Neutral zone
Evans 69.9%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 64.2%
64.2%
35.8%
Evans
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Evans
Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
0
Evans
Dowd
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Evans
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
55.6% (522)
51.2% (666)
+4.4%
Power Play
72.7% (11)
0.0% (2)
+72.7%
Penalty Kill
55.2% (210)
41.5% (224)
+13.7%
On power play, Evans has a +72.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Evans is 59.2% vs right-shot opponents (184).
Evans shoots right. Dowd is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (326).
Home / Away
Evans
Dowd
Home
54.7% (402)
48.5% (466)
Away
56.9% (341)
48.8% (426)
By Period
Evans
Dowd
P1
57.9%
48.4%
P2
55.2%
46.8%
P3
53.6%
51.3%
OT
66.7%
30.0%
Final 5 min
54.5%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
55.7%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 19:42 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 03:42 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 05:39 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |