Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Evans wins 56.8% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 51.7% vs Dowd 50.7% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Evans 71.9%
Defensive zone
Dowd 64.6%
Neutral zone
Dowd 61.4%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 63.6%
36.4%
63.6%
Evans
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Evans
Dowd
Last 6: Evans 1-5 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
3
Evans
Dowd
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
2
Evans
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (483)
55.2% (625)
-0.7%
Power Play
58.3% (12)
57.1% (7)
+1.2%
Penalty Kill
43.9% (155)
38.2% (220)
+5.7%
On penalty kill, Evans has a +5.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Evans is 56.8% vs right-shot opponents (155).
Evans shoots right. Dowd is 51.9% vs right-shot opponents (295).
Home / Away
Evans
Dowd
Home
49.4% (336)
53.7% (445)
Away
54.8% (314)
47.7% (407)
By Period
Evans
Dowd
P1
55.8%
48.8%
P2
51.7%
49.3%
P3
48.2%
54.0%
OT
100.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
49.0%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
57.0%
52.0%
Dowd
48.0%▼
54.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2023 | 3 | 16:58 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 3 | 07:09 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 2 | 04:36 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 3 | 13:00 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 2 | 13:44 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |