Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Evans wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.0% vs Sturm 53.6% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 53.0%
Defensive zone
Evans 60.6%
Neutral zone
Evans 56.7%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 52.8%
52.8%
47.2%
Evans
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
0
(4 meetings)
4
0
Evans
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Evans
2
0
Evans
Sturm
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
0
Evans
Sturm
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
1
0
Evans
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
55.6% (522)
54.6% (271)
+1.0%
Penalty Kill
55.2% (210)
54.4% (90)
+0.8%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Evans is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (559).
Evans shoots right. Sturm is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (118).
Home / Away
Evans
Sturm
Home
54.7% (402)
53.0% (168)
Away
56.9% (341)
56.0% (193)
By Period
Evans
Sturm
P1
57.9%
58.2%
P2
55.2%
53.2%
P3
53.6%
52.3%
OT
66.7%
100.0%
Final 5 min
54.5%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
55.7%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 03:50 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 03:09 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 12:50 | Offensive | Jake Evans |