Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.7% vs 55.0%). Evans wins 59.2% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.0% vs Carrick 54.2% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carrick 52.0%
Defensive zone
Evans 62.3%
Neutral zone
Evans 53.3%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 53.3%
53.3%
46.7%
Evans
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Evans
Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
2
Evans
Carrick
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
55.6% (522)
55.5% (470)
+0.1%
Power Play
72.7% (11)
66.7% (3)
+6.0%
Penalty Kill
55.2% (210)
50.0% (58)
+5.2%
On power play, Evans has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Evans is 59.2% vs right-shot opponents (184).
Evans shoots right. Carrick is 55.6% vs right-shot opponents (144).
Home / Away
Evans
Carrick
Home
54.7% (402)
58.6% (261)
Away
56.9% (341)
51.5% (270)
By Period
Evans
Carrick
P1
57.9%
55.9%
P2
55.2%
53.5%
P3
53.6%
55.6%
OT
66.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.5%
56.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
55.7%
Carrick
60.0%▲
57.0%
55.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 14:57 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 04:20 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |