Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.2% vs 52.3%). Look for Evans on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.2% vs Carrick 52.2% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Evans leads 8-7 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Carrick 51.3%
Defensive zone
Evans 52.9%
Neutral zone
Carrick 53.8%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 51.7%
48.3%
51.7%
Evans
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
7
(15 meetings)
8
7
Evans
Carrick
Last 10: Evans 4-6 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Evans
3
2
Evans
Carrick
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
2
Evans
Carrick
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
4
3
Evans
Carrick
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (3,740)
52.2% (2,544)
+1.5%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
61.3% (75)
-0.7%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (1,228)
50.8% (435)
-3.7%
On penalty kill, Carrick has a +3.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Evans is 52.5% vs right-shot opponents (1,301).
Evans shoots right. Carrick is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (843).
Home / Away
Evans
Carrick
Home
53.3% (2,621)
51.5% (1,477)
Away
51.0% (2,418)
53.0% (1,577)
By Period
Evans
Carrick
P1
54.0%
51.8%
P2
50.9%
52.3%
P3
52.0%
52.6%
OT
46.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.5%
49.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
52.2%
Carrick
60.0%▲
57.0%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 14:57 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 04:20 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 19, 2025 | 3 | 12:52 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Jan 19, 2025 | 2 | 02:22 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 3 | 16:19 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 3 | 06:01 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 2 | 13:53 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 1 | 14:34 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 1 | 02:18 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 1 | 02:08 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 3 | 19:51 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 3 | 03:23 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 3 | 03:11 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Jan 27, 2022 | 2 | 07:01 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 27, 2022 | 1 | 09:21 | Offensive | Jake Evans |