Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Evans wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.0% vs Aho 50.5% (+5.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 83.9%
Defensive zone
Evans 78.5%
Neutral zone
Aho 54.0%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 69.0%
31.0%
69.0%
Evans
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Evans
Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Evans
Aho
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Evans
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
55.6% (522)
50.5% (878)
+5.1%
Power Play
72.7% (11)
53.5% (144)
+19.2%
Penalty Kill
55.2% (210)
44.3% (61)
+10.9%
On power play, Evans has a +19.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Evans is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (559).
Evans shoots right. Aho is 55.5% vs right-shot opponents (380).
Home / Away
Evans
Aho
Home
54.7% (402)
53.8% (571)
Away
56.9% (341)
46.9% (512)
By Period
Evans
Aho
P1
57.9%
49.0%
P2
55.2%
51.7%
P3
53.6%
50.3%
OT
66.7%
58.8%
Final 5 min
54.5%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
55.7%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2026 | 2 | 17:32 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 11:53 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |