Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.7% vs 55.5%). Evans wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.0% vs Crosby 55.1% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Crosby 85.6%
Defensive zone
Evans 86.8%
Neutral zone
Evans 52.5%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 69.7%
69.7%
30.3%
Evans
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Evans
Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
0
Evans
Crosby
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Crosby
0
1
Evans
Crosby
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
55.6% (522)
53.3% (1,025)
+2.3%
Power Play
72.7% (11)
64.7% (249)
+8.0%
Penalty Kill
55.2% (210)
60.0% (15)
-4.8%
On power play, Evans has a +8.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. Evans is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (559).
Evans shoots right. Crosby is 57.3% vs right-shot opponents (375).
Home / Away
Evans
Crosby
Home
54.7% (402)
56.9% (675)
Away
56.9% (341)
54.1% (614)
By Period
Evans
Crosby
P1
57.9%
55.1%
P2
55.2%
53.1%
P3
53.6%
58.5%
OT
66.7%
54.2%
Final 5 min
54.5%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
55.7%
Crosby
46.0%▼
54.0%
55.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 02:04 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |