Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.7% vs 56.5%). Evans wins 59.2% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.0% vs Stamkos 55.4% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 90.0%
Defensive zone
Evans 82.7%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 53.9%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 82.7%
82.7%
17.3%
Evans
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Evans
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
0
Evans
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
55.6% (522)
57.1% (368)
-1.5%
Power Play
72.7% (11)
55.2% (96)
+17.5%
Penalty Kill
55.2% (210)
50.0% (10)
+5.2%
On power play, Evans has a +17.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Evans is 59.2% vs right-shot opponents (184).
Evans shoots right. Stamkos is 50.4% vs right-shot opponents (121).
Home / Away
Evans
Stamkos
Home
54.7% (402)
53.9% (230)
Away
56.9% (341)
59.0% (244)
By Period
Evans
Stamkos
P1
57.9%
56.7%
P2
55.2%
54.1%
P3
53.6%
59.2%
OT
66.7%
62.5%
Final 5 min
54.5%
59.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
55.7%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 10:27 | Defensive | Jake Evans |