Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +10.2% FO% edge overall. Evans wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.0% vs Gourde 46.0% (+10.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Evans 51.2%
Defensive zone
Evans 81.2%
Neutral zone
Evans 65.4%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 60.6%
60.6%
39.4%
Evans
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Evans
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
0
Evans
Gourde
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Evans
Gourde
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
55.6% (522)
47.2% (687)
+8.4%
Power Play
72.7% (11)
45.0% (20)
+27.7%
Penalty Kill
55.2% (210)
33.0% (88)
+22.2%
On power play, Evans has a +27.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Evans is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (559).
Evans shoots right. Gourde is 43.8% vs right-shot opponents (272).
Home / Away
Evans
Gourde
Home
54.7% (402)
44.4% (356)
Away
56.9% (341)
46.5% (439)
By Period
Evans
Gourde
P1
57.9%
42.2%
P2
55.2%
50.0%
P3
53.6%
44.5%
OT
66.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.5%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
55.7%
Gourde
48.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 17:12 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 10:24 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |