Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Guentzel 48.1% vs Monahan 52.5% (-5.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Guentzel 72.1%
Defensive zone
Monahan 74.2%
Neutral zone
Monahan 51.7%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 55.0%
45.0%
55.0%
Guentzel
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Guentzel
Monahan
Last 6: Guentzel 3-3 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Guentzel
2
0
Guentzel
Monahan
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
3
Guentzel
Monahan
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Guentzel
1
0
Guentzel
Monahan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Guentzel
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
49.1% (230)
53.0% (874)
-3.9%
Power Play
44.9% (118)
54.7% (161)
-9.8%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (26)
47.5% (101)
-1.3%
On power play, Monahan has a +9.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Guentzel is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (238).
Guentzel shoots left. Monahan is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (710).
Home / Away
Guentzel
Monahan
Home
50.2% (205)
53.8% (558)
Away
44.4% (169)
51.7% (578)
By Period
Guentzel
Monahan
P1
47.6%
49.5%
P2
49.0%
54.8%
P3
46.2%
52.8%
OT
42.9%
61.9%
Final 5 min
49.3%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Guentzel
54.0%▲
47.0%
47.6%
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 14:02 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 12:10 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 11:59 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 13:13 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 09:28 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 13:59 | Neutral | Jake Guentzel |