Scouting Report
Sidney Crosby holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Guentzel on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Guentzel wins 46.5% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Guentzel 46.7% vs Crosby 53.5% (-7.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Guentzel 68.9%
Defensive zone
Crosby 66.2%
Neutral zone
Guentzel 53.8%
Result
Jake Guentzel favored at 55.5%
55.5%
44.5%
Guentzel
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Guentzel
Crosby
Last 9: Guentzel 4-5 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Guentzel
4
1
Guentzel
Crosby
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
0
3
Guentzel
Crosby
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Crosby
0
1
Guentzel
Crosby
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Guentzel
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (715)
52.8% (18,031)
-6.4%
Power Play
46.6% (298)
57.4% (4,741)
-10.8%
Penalty Kill
43.2% (44)
47.0% (766)
-3.8%
On power play, Crosby has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. Guentzel is 46.5% vs left-shot opponents (656).
Guentzel shoots left. Crosby is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (14,886).
Home / Away
Guentzel
Crosby
Home
48.9% (583)
55.0% (11,998)
Away
43.2% (474)
52.0% (11,559)
By Period
Guentzel
Crosby
P1
48.0%
53.6%
P2
45.5%
53.8%
P3
46.0%
53.3%
OT
33.3%
49.6%
Final 5 min
43.1%
52.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Guentzel
54.0%▲
47.0%
46.4%
Crosby
46.0%▼
54.0%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2025 | 2 | 17:45 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 2 | 03:53 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 12, 2025 | 3 | 00:34 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Jan 12, 2025 | 2 | 18:52 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 2 | 10:50 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 2 | 04:56 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 1 | 03:56 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 1 | 01:12 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 1 | 05:58 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |