Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Stenlund on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Harkins wins 56.3% vs right-shot opponents — Stenlund shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Harkins 50.9% vs Stenlund 54.2% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Harkins 75.1%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 73.8%
Neutral zone
Harkins 61.2%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 58.9%
41.1%
58.9%
Harkins
Stenlund
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Harkins
Stenlund
Last 8: Harkins 4-4 Stenlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Harkins
1
0
Harkins
Stenlund
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
2
3
Harkins
Stenlund
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Harkins
Stenlund
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Harkins
Stenlund
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (173)
56.2% (650)
-6.5%
Power Play
77.8% (9)
53.2% (47)
+24.6%
Penalty Kill
66.7% (3)
51.6% (312)
+15.1%
On power play, Harkins has a +24.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stenlund shoots right. Harkins is 56.3% vs right-shot opponents (71).
Harkins shoots left. Stenlund is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (688).
Home / Away
Harkins
Stenlund
Home
55.3% (85)
56.9% (483)
Away
48.0% (100)
52.5% (526)
By Period
Harkins
Stenlund
P1
71.4%
54.2%
P2
41.8%
53.2%
P3
43.5%
56.9%
Final 5 min
51.9%
57.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Harkins
48.0%▼
50.5%
51.4%
Stenlund
56.0%▼
59.0%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 3, 2025 | 3 | 15:39 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 3 | 10:06 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 3 | 08:45 | Offensive | Jansen Harkins |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 2 | 15:43 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 1 | 02:20 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 3 | 13:06 | Defensive | Jansen Harkins |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 3 | 01:43 | Defensive | Jansen Harkins |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 15:52 | Neutral | Jansen Harkins |