Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Harkins 50.9% vs Hertl 57.5% (-6.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Harkins 61.3%
Defensive zone
Harkins 82.0%
Neutral zone
Harkins 74.1%
Result
Jansen Harkins favored at 78.1%
78.1%
21.9%
Harkins
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Harkins
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Harkins
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Harkins
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Harkins
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (173)
58.7% (858)
-9.0%
Power Play
77.8% (9)
55.8% (285)
+22.0%
Penalty Kill
66.7% (3)
62.9% (35)
+3.8%
On power play, Harkins has a +22.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Harkins is 48.2% vs left-shot opponents (114).
Harkins shoots left. Hertl is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (736).
Home / Away
Harkins
Hertl
Home
55.3% (85)
60.1% (599)
Away
48.0% (100)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Harkins
Hertl
P1
71.4%
52.4%
P2
41.8%
63.9%
P3
43.5%
58.5%
Final 5 min
51.9%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Harkins
48.0%▼
50.5%
51.4%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 05:13 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 13:06 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |