Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Dickinson wins 46.5% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dickinson 49.7% vs Tavares 56.8% (-7.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 60.2%
Defensive zone
Dickinson 90.4%
Neutral zone
Dickinson 66.9%
Result
Jason Dickinson favored at 55.3%
55.3%
44.7%
Dickinson
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Dickinson
Tavares
Last 5: Dickinson 1-4 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
3
Dickinson
Tavares
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dickinson
1
0
Dickinson
Tavares
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
1
Dickinson
Tavares
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dickinson
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
51.9% (670)
57.7% (975)
-5.8%
Power Play
66.7% (9)
56.0% (250)
+10.7%
Penalty Kill
39.1% (156)
52.2% (23)
-13.1%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +13.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Dickinson is 46.5% vs left-shot opponents (564).
Dickinson shoots left. Tavares is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (811).
Home / Away
Dickinson
Tavares
Home
48.7% (431)
57.4% (636)
Away
50.7% (404)
57.2% (612)
By Period
Dickinson
Tavares
P1
43.4%
57.5%
P2
54.9%
56.9%
P3
49.6%
57.5%
OT
66.7%
57.1%
Final 5 min
43.6%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dickinson
54.0%▲
50.5%
49.7%
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
57.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 16:45 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 19:07 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 09:42 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 01:31 | Offensive | John Tavares |