Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.9% vs 53.7%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 52.4% vs Dowd 53.3% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 89.2%
Defensive zone
Dowd 82.0%
Neutral zone
Dowd 53.9%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 68.0%
32.0%
68.0%
Spezza
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Spezza
Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Spezza
Dowd
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
1
0
Spezza
Dowd
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (451)
55.4% (771)
-1.7%
Power Play
54.3% (92)
57.1% (7)
-2.8%
Penalty Kill
38.2% (34)
45.5% (165)
-7.3%
On penalty kill, Dowd has a +7.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Spezza is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (168).
Spezza shoots right. Dowd is 53.1% vs right-shot opponents (322).
Home / Away
Spezza
Dowd
Home
55.0% (282)
58.2% (462)
Away
50.8% (295)
49.3% (481)
By Period
Spezza
Dowd
P1
53.1%
55.6%
P2
53.2%
50.5%
P3
52.3%
53.9%
Final 5 min
56.7%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
52.9%
Dowd
48.0%▼
54.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2022 | 3 | 13:15 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 28, 2022 | 3 | 01:44 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |