Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Spezza wins 54.0% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.7% vs Carrick 52.2% (+2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 86.9%
Defensive zone
Carrick 71.4%
Neutral zone
Spezza 58.0%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 57.9%
57.9%
42.1%
Spezza
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Spezza
Carrick
Last 5: Spezza 3-2 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
1
Spezza
Carrick
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
1
Spezza
Carrick
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
3
0
Spezza
Carrick
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (7,990)
52.2% (2,544)
+2.2%
Power Play
56.8% (1,726)
61.3% (75)
-4.5%
Penalty Kill
52.7% (643)
50.8% (435)
+1.9%
On power play, Carrick has a +4.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Spezza is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,088).
Spezza shoots right. Carrick is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (843).
Home / Away
Spezza
Carrick
Home
56.8% (5,066)
51.5% (1,477)
Away
52.7% (5,332)
53.0% (1,577)
By Period
Spezza
Carrick
P1
55.7%
51.8%
P2
54.4%
52.3%
P3
54.1%
52.6%
OT
51.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.2%
49.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Carrick
60.0%▲
57.0%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2022 | 3 | 11:48 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 26, 2022 | 3 | 11:42 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 26, 2022 | 1 | 12:07 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 28, 2021 | 1 | 18:15 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 28, 2021 | 1 | 12:45 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |