Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (73% H2H, 11 meetings). Spezza wins 55.0% vs left-shot opponents — Horcoff shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.7% vs Horcoff 49.6% (+5.2%)
H2H factor
Spezza leads 25-14 in 39 meetings
Offensive zone
Spezza 95.0%
Defensive zone
Spezza 77.0%
Neutral zone
Spezza 86.8%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 85.8%
85.8%
14.2%
Spezza
Horcoff
Head-to-Head Record
25
-
14
(39 meetings)
25
14
Spezza
Horcoff
Last 10: Spezza 6-4 Horcoff
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
8
3
Spezza
Horcoff
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
7
6
Spezza
Horcoff
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
10
5
Spezza
Horcoff
15 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Horcoff
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (7,990)
50.6% (3,133)
+3.8%
Power Play
56.8% (1,726)
51.4% (555)
+5.4%
Penalty Kill
52.7% (643)
43.0% (567)
+9.7%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +9.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Horcoff shoots left. Spezza is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,310).
Spezza shoots right. Horcoff is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,303).
Home / Away
Spezza
Horcoff
Home
56.8% (5,066)
51.1% (2,199)
Away
52.7% (5,332)
48.0% (2,104)
By Period
Spezza
Horcoff
P1
55.7%
48.2%
P2
54.4%
49.5%
P3
54.1%
50.9%
OT
51.5%
51.9%
Final 5 min
54.2%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Horcoff
62.0%▲
55.5%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2016 | 1 | 01:54 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 27, 2015 | 3 | 10:19 | Defensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Oct 27, 2015 | 3 | 07:11 | Defensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Oct 27, 2015 | 3 | 04:47 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 27, 2015 | 2 | 07:23 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 27, 2015 | 1 | 14:44 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 3, 2013 | 3 | 05:20 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 3, 2013 | 2 | 14:35 | Defensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Nov 3, 2013 | 1 | 14:47 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 11, 2012 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Shawn Horcoff |
| Feb 11, 2012 | 3 | 14:24 | Defensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Feb 11, 2012 | 3 | 14:12 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 11, 2012 | 3 | 09:30 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 11, 2012 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 11, 2012 | 2 | 19:10 | Defensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Feb 11, 2012 | 2 | 13:32 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 11, 2012 | 2 | 03:57 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 11, 2012 | 2 | 02:50 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 11, 2012 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Shawn Horcoff |
| Feb 11, 2012 | 1 | 19:54 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |