Scouting Report
Tomas Nosek holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Spezza wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 52.4% vs Nosek 53.4% (-1.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 76.0%
Defensive zone
Nosek 74.8%
Neutral zone
Spezza 51.6%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 50.9%
50.9%
49.1%
Spezza
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Spezza
Nosek
Last 9: Spezza 4-5 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
3
0
Spezza
Nosek
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
0
3
Spezza
Nosek
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nosek
1
2
Spezza
Nosek
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (451)
55.1% (557)
-1.4%
Power Play
54.3% (92)
50.0% (4)
+4.3%
Penalty Kill
38.2% (34)
47.7% (111)
-9.5%
On penalty kill, Nosek has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Spezza is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (409).
Spezza shoots right. Nosek is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (280).
Home / Away
Spezza
Nosek
Home
55.0% (282)
52.3% (342)
Away
50.8% (295)
55.5% (330)
By Period
Spezza
Nosek
P1
53.1%
49.0%
P2
53.2%
53.8%
P3
52.3%
57.9%
Final 5 min
56.7%
50.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
52.9%
Nosek
56.0%▬
55.5%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 2022 | 3 | 08:54 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 1 | 11:47 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 1 | 11:32 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 1 | 08:03 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 1 | 01:48 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 2 | 09:21 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 3 | 02:53 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 2 | 14:59 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 1 | 10:01 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |