Scouting Report
Jayson Megna holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Lorentz on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Megna wins 54.0% vs left-shot opponents — Lorentz shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Megna 51.7% vs Lorentz 48.2% (+4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lorentz 57.8%
Defensive zone
Megna 51.2%
Neutral zone
Lorentz 53.6%
Result
Steven Lorentz favored at 56.7%
43.3%
56.7%
Megna
Lorentz
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Megna
Lorentz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lorentz
1
2
Megna
Lorentz
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Megna
1
0
Megna
Lorentz
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Megna
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (251)
48.3% (497)
+5.5%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
63.6% (11)
-63.6%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (26)
38.5% (39)
+3.8%
On power play, Lorentz has a +63.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Megna is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (198).
Megna shoots right. Lorentz is 45.8% vs right-shot opponents (203).
Home / Away
Megna
Lorentz
Home
50.4% (135)
50.4% (238)
Away
54.2% (144)
46.0% (309)
By Period
Megna
Lorentz
P1
60.9%
49.1%
P2
51.2%
48.0%
P3
45.7%
47.2%
Final 5 min
57.4%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Megna
46.0%▼
53.5%
52.3%
Lorentz
48.0%▬
48.0%
47.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2023 | 2 | 07:50 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 1 | 09:55 | Neutral | Jayson Megna |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 1 | 05:25 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 1 | 02:56 | Offensive | Jayson Megna |