Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +21.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Groulx on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Groulx wins 35.3% vs right-shot opponents — Pageau shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Groulx 43.6% vs Pageau 59.0% (-21.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pageau 73.9%
Defensive zone
Pageau 75.5%
Neutral zone
Pageau 73.6%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 74.0%
26.0%
74.0%
Groulx
Pageau
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Groulx
Pageau
Last 5: Groulx 3-2 Pageau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
0
1
Groulx
Pageau
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Groulx
1
0
Groulx
Pageau
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Groulx
2
1
Groulx
Pageau
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Groulx
Pageau
Edge
Even Strength
42.5% (87)
59.4% (726)
-16.9%
Power Play
33.3% (3)
69.0% (42)
-35.7%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
59.7% (221)
-34.7%
On power play, Pageau has a +35.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pageau shoots right. Groulx is 35.3% vs right-shot opponents (34).
Groulx shoots left. Pageau is 60.9% vs left-shot opponents (723).
Home / Away
Groulx
Pageau
Home
53.8% (39)
58.4% (430)
Away
30.4% (79)
61.0% (559)
By Period
Groulx
Pageau
P1
48.1%
55.4%
P2
38.6%
61.8%
P3
32.6%
61.5%
OT
0.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
43.5%
63.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Groulx
24.0%▼
37.5%
38.1%
Pageau
60.0%▬
60.0%
59.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 03:48 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 03:33 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 00:14 | Defensive | Bo Groulx |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Bo Groulx |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Bo Groulx |