Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Mason McTavish
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +10.8% FO% edge overall. Pageau wins 60.7% vs left-shot opponents — McTavish shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 58.9% vs McTavish 49.1% (+10.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pageau 64.6%
Defensive zone
Pageau 94.1%
Neutral zone
Pageau 86.8%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 76.2%
76.2%
23.8%
Pageau
McTavish
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Pageau
McTavish
Last 7: Pageau 5-2 McTavish
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Pageau
McTavish
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
2
0
Pageau
McTavish
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
1
0
Pageau
McTavish
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
McTavish
Edge
Even Strength
59.3% (715)
47.6% (617)
+11.7%
Power Play
68.3% (41)
57.8% (102)
+10.5%
Penalty Kill
59.7% (221)
33.3% (6)
+26.4%
On penalty kill, Pageau has a +26.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McTavish shoots left. Pageau is 60.7% vs left-shot opponents (718).
Pageau shoots right. McTavish is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (256).
Home / Away
Pageau
McTavish
Home
58.1% (418)
52.2% (389)
Away
61.0% (559)
45.2% (336)
By Period
Pageau
McTavish
P1
55.3%
50.2%
P2
61.5%
47.9%
P3
61.6%
49.0%
OT
75.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
63.2%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
58.0%▬
59.0%
59.8%
McTavish
48.0%▲
45.5%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2026 | 2 | 10:05 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 4, 2026 | 1 | 17:44 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 11:51 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 05:55 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 05:47 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 00:45 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 10:27 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |